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GAZPROM’S SOUTH STREAM PROJECT CAN BE HALTED IN THE BLACK SEA ...


But they can question it thoroughly; can demand extensive study of the project�s impact on environment, shipping and maritime safety generally; and are entitled to evaluate these studies and independently assess their findings. For its part, Ukraine is interested in continuing large-scale transit of Russian-delivered gas to Europe, as opposed to seeing part of that transit re-routed through South Stream.The Black Sea does not have a �neutral� zone in the usual sense of the term. Gazprom lacks the technology for building such an ultra-deep pipeline. However, one of Russia�s rationales behind South Stream is to bypass Turkey, just as bypassing Ukraine. In that country, South Stream will bifurcate into a southern branch via Greece to Italy and a northern branch via Serbia and Hungary to Austria. Instead, Moscow has chosen to circumvent Turkey through South Stream. It also implements Moscow�s broader strategy to switch from overland to seabed gas transit pipelines wherever possible. Italy�s ENI is set opportunistically to provide that technology, as ENI did in 1999-2002 for Gazprom�s Blue Stream One pipeline on the seabed of the Black Sea from Russia to Turkey. Meanwhile, Romania is the only Nabucco consortium member to have turned down Gazprom�s offer to join South Stream. Moscow seems to repeat the costly error it made when failing to hold advance consultations with Baltic Sea riparian countries about the Nord Stream seabed pipeline. Riparian countries divide the sea into exclusive economic zones bilaterally. Romania�s and Bulgaria�s zones also border each other. The country�s President Traian Basescu and parts of the government have correctly analyzed South Stream�s disadvantages and risks.Both countries are interested in stopping South Stream. The Kremlin has abandoned its earlier intentions to expand Blue Stream One on the seabed to Turkey and continue it as Blue Stream Two overland from Turkey to Europe. There, Gazprom is developing a major storage and transmission center for Europe near Vienna.The pipeline�s section on the seabed of the Black Sea is the key to the entire project. These maritime zones are immediately adjacent to each other. They are also entitled to demand modifications to the Russian-proposed route.In the Baltic Sea last year Estonia, Finland, Poland, Sweden, and Lithuania have used their rights under international law in this manner. They have thoroughly questioned Gazprom�s Nord Stream seabed pipeline project in most of its aspects and demanded modifications of its route. This move avoids difficult dealings with Ankara on the terms of overland transit. This pipeline, if built, will kill Nabucco, thus depriving Romania of alternative gas supplies and transit revenue from the Nabucco project, to which Bucharest remains loyal. This situation can give both countries potentially decisive leverage over the project.Ukraine and Romania are not included in the South Stream project. Ukraine�s economic zone abuts directly on those of Russia to the east, Turkey to the south, and Romania to the west. Whether these errors are of omission or of commission seems unclear.